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News & Publications >> Predicting Commercial Real Estate Supply: An Analysis of The Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Indexes

Predicting Commercial Real Estate Supply: An Analysis of The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Indexes

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In 2007, Allen Matkins and the UCLA Anderson Forecast entered into a partnership to develop new knowledge on commercial real estate markets in California. The concept from its inception was to create unique data that would provide a window into the future trajectory for each of four commercial spaces: office, industrial, retail and multi-family. Now, after 11 years of semi-annual surveying of office markets and 10 years for industrial markets, it is time to take a first look at the quantitative predictive power of the survey. To be sure, the survey results, codified in a sentiment index, have provided insight already. The question asked in this article is to what extent the qualitative corresponds to statistically regular patterns – patterns that may be exploited in forecasting through the second decade. We find a significant relationship, with a few exceptions, between the survey results and the level of new building activity three years into the future. 

View Primer on the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson
Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey

California Commercial Real Estate Predictions

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Contacts

Tipton John M

John M. Tipton

Partner

Century City

(310) 788-2470
jtipton@allenmatkins.com
Matkins Michael L

Michael L. Matkins

Partner

Los Angeles

(213) 955-5522
mmatkins@allenmatkins.com

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Download the 2018 10-Year Retrospective Allen Matkins UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey