UCLA Anderson June 2009 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Overview Please Join the UCLA Anderson Forecast as we update our economic Forecast for the second half of 2009 with special attention to the effects of the federal stimulus package and the challenges caused by California’s budget crisis. Our special topic will focus on the next big banking challenge: fallout from commercial real estate. 

Agenda

7:00-8:00am Registration and Continental Breakfast 

8:00-12:00pm Welcome and Introductions Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast I. National, State, Regional Forecasts When will the recession end? How high will unemployment go? When the economy rebounds, how strong will the recovery be? When will the California housing market find a bottom? With California experiencing a deeper downturn than the U.S. economy, will budget problems in Sacramento keep it from participating in the rebound? 

Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast 

Special Topic: Commercial Real Estate Commercial real estate has been hit by both demand and supply shocks. As the economic climate deteriorates demand has caused projects to be delayed or cancelled. Those on the supply side still interested in development have been plagued by thinning finance opportunities. At the same time, Commercial real estate prices have declined by about 30% since the mid-2007 peak and the Commercial mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) market has all but disappeared with new issuance dropping from $250 billion to zero. 

II. Keynote - Commercial Real Estate: Distress and Opportunity Mike Kirby, Chairman and Director of Research, Green Street Advisors 

III. Executive Discussion Panel How much further will prices fall? Where will cap rates be in 2010? What is the appropriate leverage for commercial real estate? Will Fannie and Freddie continue to support the apartment market? David Rifkind, Principal & Managing Director, George Smith Partners and Kevin Shannon, Vice Chairman, CBRE